Is The Learn To Code Bubble Bursting For Computer Science Graduates? | Part 2/2

Challenging the Narrative: A Data-Driven Analysis of Computer Science Graduate Employment

Executive Summary

This report critically evaluates the prevalent narrative that the "learn to code" initiative has "backfired spectacularly," leading to high unemployment among Computer Science (CS) graduates. By examining data from sources like the New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE), and CompTIA, this analysis provides a nuanced, evidence-based perspective on the employment landscape for recent CS and Computer Engineering (CE) graduates. The findings suggest that current challenges are more indicative of market normalization and cyclical adjustments—following a period of rapid hiring and increased graduate supply—rather than a fundamental failure of the discipline. While unemployment rates for recent CS/CE graduates are slightly elevated compared to overall recent graduate averages and the broader tech workforce, they are not catastrophic outliers. The report contextualizes these figures within broader labor market trends, including increased competition at the entry-level, the impact of tech layoffs, and evolving skill demands influenced by AI. Ultimately, long-term projections for CS-related occupations remain robust, emphasizing sustained demand for these skills, albeit with a growing need for specialization, adaptability, and a broader skill set beyond foundational coding.

I. Introduction: Scrutinizing the "Learn to Code" Backlash Narrative

A. Addressing the Provocative Claim

Recent commentary, notably in an article by Futurism, has painted a stark picture for Computer Science (CS) graduates, suggesting the "learn to code" initiative has "backfired spectacularly".¹ This narrative posits that CS majors are facing alarmingly high unemployment rates, a situation purportedly exacerbated by widespread layoffs in the tech sector and the encroaching capabilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI).¹ Such claims of a "digital letdown"¹ warrant careful scrutiny, as they can significantly influence educational choices and career planning. This report aims to move beyond sensationalist headlines and provide a rigorous, data-driven examination of the employment landscape for these graduates.

B. Report Objective and Approach

The primary objective of this analysis is to critically evaluate the evidence underpinning the "backfired spectacularly" narrative. By examining data from reputable sources such as the New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE), and CompTIA, this report seeks to offer a more nuanced and evidence-based perspective on the current and future employment prospects for recent graduates in Computer Science and Computer Engineering (CE). The approach involves dissecting unemployment statistics, contextualizing them within broader labor market trends, investigating the alleged causal factors (including AI and budget cuts), and assessing the long-term outlook for these professions.

C. Initial Perspective: Market Normalization vs. "Backfire"

The assertion that the "learn to code" movement has "backfired spectacularly"¹ may overlook a more complex reality. Rather than a fundamental failure of the discipline or its career viability, the current employment figures for recent CS graduates could reflect a period of market normalization or cyclical adjustment. This adjustment follows an era of intense hype, rapid hiring—often referred to as the pandemic "tech boom"²—and a significant societal push towards "learning to code." The number of bachelor's degrees awarded in computer and information sciences, for example, more than doubled in the decade leading up to 2022-2023.³ Such a rapid increase in the supply of graduates, coupled with broader economic shifts, can temporarily strain the entry-level job market. This dynamic is distinct from a long-term "backfire" of the educational path itself. The tech industry has historically experienced periods of rapid expansion followed by corrections; the recent surge in tech hiring during the pandemic, followed by some high-profile layoffs, aligns with this pattern. Therefore, attributing current challenges solely to a "backfire" is an oversimplification that neglects these important market dynamics and the lag between educational output and labor market absorption.

II. Deconstructing the Unemployment Figures: A Closer Look at the Data

A. Presenting the Core Data from the New York Federal Reserve

The Futurism article heavily relies on data from the New York Federal Reserve's labor market report for recent college graduates.¹ According to the most recent downloadable dataset from the NY Fed, which was updated on February 20, 2025, and utilizes U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) and O*NET data, the unemployment rate for recent Computer Science graduates (defined as those aged 22-27 with a bachelor's degree or higher and not currently enrolled in school) stands at 6.056%.⁴ For recent Computer Engineering graduates, the figure is 7.538%.⁴ These statistics are central to the claims of increased difficulty in the job market for these graduates.

B. Comparative Analysis: CS/CE vs. Other Majors and Overall Averages

To understand the significance of these figures, comparison with other groups is essential. The overall unemployment rate for all recent college graduates (aged 22-27, with a bachelor's degree or higher) was reported at 5.8% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, based on Current Population Survey (CPS) data.¹ The Futurism article correctly notes that the NY Fed data (from the February 2025 ACS update) shows varying unemployment rates across different majors: Anthropology majors faced a 9.4% unemployment rate, and Physics majors a 7.8% rate, while Journalism majors reportedly had a 4.4% unemployment rate.¹ Within this ranking, Computer Engineering was reported as having the third-highest rate of unemployment, and Computer Science the seventh-highest.¹

C. Defining Key Terms for Clarity

Precision in terminology is crucial for accurate interpretation.

• Recent College Graduate: As per the NY Fed's methodology, this group comprises individuals aged 22 to 27 who hold a bachelor's degree or higher and are not currently enrolled in school.⁵
• Unemployed: The unemployment data, particularly when derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS) as the overall recent graduate rate is⁴, generally aligns with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) standard definition. An individual is classified as unemployed if they were not employed during the survey reference week, were available for work, and had made specific efforts to find employment at some point during the four-week period ending with the survey reference week (or were waiting to be recalled from a temporary layoff). The unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed individuals as a percentage of the labor force (the sum of employed and unemployed persons).
• Data Sources and Timing: It is important to recognize a methodological nuance: the by-major unemployment data (e.g., for CS, CE, Anthropology) is updated annually by the NY Fed, typically in February, using ACS and O*NET data.⁴ In contrast, the overall unemployment rate for recent graduates is updated quarterly using CPS data.¹ This means the 6.056% (CS) and 7.538% (CE) figures from the February 2025 update (likely reflecting data from the 2024 calendar year or a similar period) are being compared with an overall recent graduate rate of 5.8% from Q1 2025. While the ACS provides rich detail on specific majors, the CPS offers more timely headline unemployment figures. This slight temporal difference is unlikely to cause major distortions but is noted for analytical rigor.

D. Proposed Table 1: Comparative Unemployment Rates for Recent College Graduates

Major / Group	Unemployment Rate (%)	Data Source/Date
Computer Science	6.056%	NY Fed (ACS/O*NET), Feb 2025
Computer Engineering	7.538%	NY Fed (ACS/O*NET), Feb 2025
Anthropology	9.4%	NY Fed1, Feb 2025 est.
Physics	7.8%	NY Fed1, Feb 2025 est.
Journalism	4.4%	NY Fed1, Feb 2025 est.
Overall Recent Graduates	5.8%	NY Fed (CPS), Q1 2025

Note: Rates for Anthropology, Physics, and Journalism are as cited in ¹, presumed to be from the same NY Fed dataset as CS/CE.

The data presented in Table 1 confirms that while the unemployment rates for recent CS and CE graduates are indeed higher than the overall recent graduate average and some specific majors like Journalism, they are not the absolute highest. Fields such as Anthropology and Physics report even higher unemployment rates.¹ The Futurism article's framing of CS as "seventh-highest" and CE as "third-highest" is factually based on the NY Fed's list but can contribute to an amplified sense of crisis if not viewed within the full spectrum of all majors. The selection of Journalism (4.4%) for comparison, a field often perceived as having challenging job prospects, further accentuates the perceived difficulties for CS/CE graduates. The critical point is that while the rates for CS and CE graduates are elevated and warrant attention, they are not catastrophic outliers at the very peak of unemployment across all fields of study.

III. Contextualizing the Numbers: Market Fluctuation or "Spectacular Backfire"?

To accurately assess the situation for recent CS graduates, their unemployment figures must be placed within a broader labor market context. Focusing solely on one data point risks misinterpretation.

A. The Broader Tech Labor Market: A Different Picture

A crucial distinction must be made between the unemployment rate for recent CS graduates and the unemployment rate for the entire tech workforce, which includes experienced professionals. Data from CompTIA, analyzing BLS statistics, shows that tech unemployment was remarkably low at 2.0% in December 2024⁸ and 3.1% in March 2025.⁹ These figures are significantly below the national average unemployment rates for those periods (4.1% in December 2024 and 4.2% in March 2025, respectively).⁸ This stark contrast indicates that experienced tech professionals remain in high demand and that the overall tech labor market maintains a considerable degree of robustness. The challenge appears to be concentrated at the entry-level rather than being indicative of a sector-wide collapse.

B. The Supply Side: Soaring CS Enrollments and Graduations

The supply of new CS graduates has increased dramatically. The number of students earning bachelor's degrees in Computer and Information Sciences more than doubled over the decade from 2013-2014 (51,696 graduates) to 2022-2023 (112,720 graduates).³ This field demonstrated the largest year-over-year growth (4.3%) in the number of bachelor's degree earners, even as the overall number of bachelor's degrees conferred saw a decline.³ The Futurism article itself acknowledges that "computer science enrollment is hitting record highs".¹ Such a rapid and substantial increase in the supply of graduates entering the job market inevitably intensifies competition for available entry-level positions.

C. Recent Economic Adjustments and Tech Layoffs

The labor market for all recent college graduates, not just those in CS, "deteriorated noticeably" in the first quarter of 2025.² The overall unemployment rate for this demographic jumped to 5.8%, the highest since 2021, and the underemployment rate rose sharply to 41.2%.² This indicates a broader trend affecting new entrants into the workforce across many disciplines. One labor economics expert described this as an "unprecedented time where the unemployment rate for [recent] college graduates is higher than just the overall unemployment rate".¹¹

Furthermore, major tech companies such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have conducted significant layoffs, with over 60,000 tech workers affected in the recent past.² While these layoffs did not exclusively target recent graduates, they contributed to an expanded talent pool and may have made employers more selective in their hiring, prioritizing candidates with established experience. Some analysts attribute the spike in recent graduate unemployment to a "normalization after the post-pandemic surge" in hiring and a "structural shift in hiring in the tech sector"¹², with some employers adopting a "wait-and-see mode".⁹

D. The Underemployment Question

The underemployment rate for recent college graduates—defined as the share of graduates in jobs that do not typically require a college degree—rose to 41.2% in Q1 2025.² While this is a concerning trend for new entrants overall, the NY Fed's by-major data (February 2025 update) shows underemployment rates for recent CS graduates at 19.081% and for recent CE graduates at 17.462%.⁴ These figures are considerably lower than the 41.2% average for all recent graduates, suggesting that CS and CE graduates are, on average, less likely to be underemployed than their peers in other fields. The NY Fed also offers a mitigating perspective, noting that many underemployed college graduates work in "fairly skilled and well paid" non-college jobs and often transition into degree-appropriate roles as they gain work experience.⁵

The significant disparity between the low overall tech unemployment rate (2-3.1%) and the higher recent CS graduate unemployment rate (6.1-7.5%) strongly suggests that the primary challenge is concentrated at the entry-level. This bottleneck is likely due to an interplay of factors: the surge in CS graduate supply creating more competition for a finite number of entry-level roles, employers prioritizing experienced hires amidst economic uncertainty and recent layoffs, a potential skills mismatch between academic curricula and rapidly evolving industry needs (particularly with the ascent of AI), or simply a longer job search period for new entrants in a more competitive environment.

The "deteriorated noticeably" labor market for all recent college graduates² provides critical context. Attributing the challenges faced by CS graduates solely to a "backfire" specific to their chosen field is misleading when new workforce entrants across many disciplines are encountering a tougher market. CS graduates are part of this wider trend, even if their specific unemployment rate is currently slightly above the recent graduate average.

The claim of a "precipitous fall from grace"¹ for CS graduates is difficult to fully substantiate with the provided information regarding historical unemployment rates specifically for CS majors from the NY Fed. The NY Fed's own documentation indicates that historical records for outcomes by major are not maintained on their website; only the most recent year's data is typically available.⁵ While anecdotal evidence might suggest a previously more favorable market for CS graduates¹³, a continuous, directly comparable time-series from the primary data source (NY Fed by-major data) is absent in the available materials. This makes it challenging to definitively assess the degree of change in unemployment specifically for CS majors over an extended period like the last decade using this particular dataset. The analysis must therefore focus on the current context and future projections rather than a detailed historical comparison for this specific group from this specific source.

E. Proposed Table 2: Key Labor Market Indicators – Contextual View

Indicator	Rate (%) / Trend	Data Source/Date
Recent CS Graduate Unemployment Rate	6.056%	NY Fed (ACS/O*NET), Feb 2025
Recent CE Graduate Unemployment Rate	7.538%	NY Fed (ACS/O*NET), Feb 2025
Overall Recent Graduate Unemployment Rate	5.8% (highest since 2021)	NY Fed (CPS), Q1 2025
Overall Tech Workforce Unemployment Rate	3.1%	CompTIA/BLS, Mar 2025
U.S. National Unemployment Rate	4.2%	BLS9, Mar 2025
Recent CS Graduate Underemployment Rate	19.081%	NY Fed (ACS/O*NET), Feb 2025
Overall Recent Graduate Underemployment Rate	41.2%	NY Fed (CPS), Q1 2025
Growth in CS Bachelor's Degrees Awarded	+118% (51,696 to 112,720)	NSC, 2013/14 to 2022/233

This table effectively juxtaposes various labor market indicators, offering a multi-faceted view. The contrast between the low overall tech workforce unemployment and the higher recent CS/CE graduate unemployment underscores the entry-level nature of the current challenge. Furthermore, comparing CS graduate unemployment and underemployment to the broader figures for all recent graduates situates the CS experience within wider economic trends affecting new workforce entrants, rather than as an isolated crisis. The substantial growth in CS degrees awarded also highlights the supply-side pressures.

IV. The Role of AI and Evolving Skill Demands

Artificial Intelligence is frequently cited as a transformative force in the labor market, and its impact on Computer Science roles is a key point of discussion.

A. AI's Dual Impact: Displacement and Demand Creation

The Futurism article¹ and some cited experts¹² suggest that AI is beginning to displace entry-level tech jobs. One expert even controversially implied that recent CS graduates are "doing a crappier job than their AI competition".¹ However, this perspective captures only one side of AI's influence. AI is simultaneously a significant driver of new job creation and a catalyst for evolving skill demands. Evidence indicates that job postings explicitly mentioning AI or requiring AI-related skills accounted for a substantial 21% of all active tech job postings in March 2025.⁹

Looking forward, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects exceptionally strong growth (for the 2023-2033 decade) for occupations central to AI development and deployment:

• Data Scientists: Employment is projected to grow by 36%¹⁴ (or 41.7% within the professional, scientific, and technical services sector¹⁵).
• Computer and Information Research Scientists, who are often at the forefront of AI research and development, are projected to see employment growth of 26%¹⁶ (or 31.6% within professional, scientific, and technical services¹⁵). This indicates that AI is not simply eroding opportunities in CS but is actively reshaping the field and creating demand for new specializations.

B. The Shifting Skill Landscape: Beyond Basic Coding

The skills valued by employers in the tech sector are evolving. There is a growing consensus among experts that proficiency in programming languages alone is no longer sufficient. Employers are increasingly seeking candidates who possess:

• Domain Expertise: The ability to combine CS knowledge with deep understanding in specific application areas such as healthcare, finance, or systems engineering is becoming highly prized.¹⁴
• AI-Specific Skills: Competencies in AI and machine learning (ML) tools, algorithm development, data analysis for AI systems, and understanding AI ethics are in high demand.⁹
• "Human-AI Hybrid" Capabilities: The capacity to leverage AI tools to augment human work, automate routine tasks, and focus on more complex problem-solving is crucial for future success.⁸
• Soft Skills: Strong communication, collaboration, critical thinking, problem-solving abilities, and the skill to translate complex technical insights for non-technical stakeholders are increasingly important differentiators.⁸ The U.S. economy reportedly suffers a $1.1 trillion annual loss due to skills gaps, highlighting a fundamental misalignment between the preparedness of graduates and the evolving needs of the economy.¹⁴ This gap is not merely about a shortage of individuals who can code, but a deficiency in graduates who can effectively bridge technical capabilities with real-world applications and business contexts.

C. University Curricula and Adaptation

Educational institutions are beginning to respond to these shifts. There is an emerging trend towards creating interdisciplinary programs that blend computer science with fields such as arts, media, business, and other domains.¹⁷ Concurrently, the demand for master's and doctoral-level research focused on AI is reportedly high, which may influence resource allocation and focus within academic CS departments.¹⁷

The impact of AI on the CS job market is more accurately characterized as a significant restructuring of skill demands rather than simple job replacement. While AI may automate certain routine, entry-level coding tasks—potentially contributing to the observed increase in unemployment for new graduates who lack specialized skills—it concurrently fuels substantial demand for individuals who can develop, implement, manage, and ethically guide AI technologies. The net effect is a clear shift towards more specialized and higher-order cognitive skills.

The "skills gap"¹⁴ in the tech sector is evolving. It is less about a sheer quantitative lack of programmers and more about a qualitative need for CS graduates who possess a potent blend of technical prowess, domain-specific knowledge, AI literacy, and essential soft skills. These include the ability to communicate complex findings and understand the context in which technical solutions are applied, thereby translating AI capabilities into tangible real-world value and actionable business decisions. A traditional, purely technical CS education may no longer be optimally sufficient without these complementary attributes.

Furthermore, the narrative of AI replacing CS graduates should be nuanced to incorporate AI as an augmentative tool. Graduates who can effectively harness AI to enhance their productivity, automate mundane aspects of their work, and consequently focus on more complex problem-solving, system architecture, and innovation will be better positioned in the labor market. The objective is to cultivate "human-AI hybrids"⁸, rather than to engage in a futile competition with AI on tasks it can perform with increasing efficiency.

V. R&D Budgets and Industry Investment: Separating Fact from Sensationalism

Claims regarding drastic cuts to engineering and Research & Development (R&D) budgets have been used to bolster the narrative of a struggling tech sector. However, a closer examination of the available information reveals a more complex picture.

A. Debunking the "40% Engineering Budget Cut" Claim

The Futurism article makes a striking assertion that "companies are cutting engineering budgets by 40 percent".¹ This specific claim appears to be a significant misrepresentation or an unwarranted generalization. Further investigation clarifies the origin of this figure: while Microsoft announced plans to cut approximately 6,000 jobs, it was reported that roughly 40% of those specific Microsoft job reductions were engineering roles located in Washington state.¹⁸ This isolated detail concerning one company's restructuring plan is vastly different from a widespread, general 40% cut to all engineering budgets across all companies in the tech sector. No other available information supports such a sweeping claim of universal 40% cuts to engineering or tech R&D budgets across the industry.

B. Actual Trends: Layoffs, Reallocations, and AI Investment

It is undeniable that there have been notable layoffs and restructuring efforts within the tech industry.¹⁸ For instance, companies like Intel (approximately 22,000 layoffs), Chevron (8,000 layoffs – though primarily energy sector, it indicates broader economic pressures), and Meta (3,600 layoffs) had significant job reductions year-to-date in 2025.¹⁸

However, these layoffs often occur alongside strategic reallocations of resources, rather than simple budget obliteration. It is reported that "Across software, firms are scrapping lower-growth projects to bankroll large-language-model work".¹⁸ Specific examples include Salesforce, Block, and Automattic, which have reportedly trimmed positions in some areas to redirect resources and budget towards AI initiatives and LLM development.¹⁸ Similarly, major players like Meta, Amazon, and Google, even while conducting layoffs in areas such as HR and recruiting, are described as actively steering budgets toward AI infrastructure and talent acquisition in AI-related fields.¹⁸ This points to a strategic pivot in investment rather than a wholesale retreat from R&D.

C. Federal R&D Funding Context

Separately, there have been legitimate concerns regarding U.S. federal R&D funding. The National Science Foundation (NSF), a critical source of funding for basic research, has faced potential budget freezes or cuts.¹⁸ For example, the Fiscal Responsibility Act's spending caps led to an 8% reduction in NSF's budget in 2024 compared to the previous year.¹⁹ These federal funding challenges primarily impact academic research institutions, national laboratories, and startups that are heavily reliant on government grants. This is a distinct issue from the R&D investment decisions made by private sector corporations, which are driven by market dynamics, product development cycles, and profitability goals.

The Futurism article's claim of a "40% cut to engineering budgets" is a critical point of misinformation that can be directly refuted. The reality is a multifaceted scenario involving targeted layoffs in some companies and strategic reallocation of resources in others, frequently towards AI R&D, rather than a blanket disinvestment in all engineering activities. The narrative of budget cuts must differentiate between general operational cost-cutting or layoffs driven by economic conditions or restructuring, and specific trends in R&D investment. While overall headcount might be reduced in some tech firms, investment in strategic R&D areas, particularly AI, appears to remain a priority. Challenges in federal R&D funding are a valid concern for the broader scientific and engineering ecosystem but should not be conflated with the R&D spending decisions of major private tech corporations.

VI. Long-Term Prospects: Beyond Short-Term Volatility

While current entry-level market conditions present challenges, long-term projections for computer science and related fields remain robust, suggesting enduring demand for these skills.

A. Robust Long-Term Growth Projections (BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2023-2033)

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) provides strong evidence for sustained long-term demand. For the decade spanning 2023 to 2033, the BLS projects significant growth for numerous CS-related occupations:

• Software Developers: Projected employment growth of 18%.²⁰ Within the professional, scientific, and technical services sector alone, this translates to an anticipated 163,500 new jobs, with the "computer systems design and related services" industry projected to grow by 19.5%.¹⁵ Median annual pay for software developers in this sector was $128,320 in 2023.¹⁵
• Information Security Analysts: Projected growth of 33%²⁰, or an even higher 41.4% within the professional, scientific, and technical services sector.¹⁵ These roles typically command very high median salaries.
• Computer and Information Research Scientists: Projected growth of 26%¹⁶, or 31.6% within professional, scientific, and technical services.¹⁵ The median annual pay was $140,910 in May 2024¹⁶, and $166,330 for those in the professional, scientific, and technical services sector in 2023.¹⁵
• Data Scientists: Projected growth of 36%¹⁴, or 41.7% within professional, scientific, and technical services.¹⁵
• Overall "Computer Occupations": Projected growth of 12%.¹⁶ All these growth rates are designated as "much faster than the average" for all occupations, which is projected at 4% for the 2023-2033 period.¹⁶

B. CompTIA "State of the Tech Workforce 2024" Reinforces Positive Outlook

CompTIA's "State of the Tech Workforce 2024" report further corroborates a positive long-term outlook. It forecasts a 3.1% growth in U.S. tech employment for 2024, which translates to over 300,000 net new workers, bringing the total to an estimated 9.9 million.²¹ This represents a rebound from the more modest 1.2% increase observed in 2023. Crucially, CompTIA's long-term (10-year) projections indicate that tech occupation employment is expected to expand at "about twice the rate of overall employment across the U.S. economy".²¹ The fastest percentage growth is anticipated in fields such as data science, cybersecurity, software development, UI/UX design, and emerging technologies, including AI. In 2023 alone, there were nearly 2.9 million job postings for core tech roles, underscoring ongoing demand.²¹

C. NACE Data: Strong Salaries and Employer Demand for New Graduates

Data from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) also points to the continued value of CS degrees in the eyes of employers. The NACE Winter 2024 Salary Survey Report (projecting for Class of 2024 graduates) reveals:

• Bachelor's Degrees: Computer Science majors were projected to be the second highest-paid group, with an average starting salary of $74,778. This marked a 2.7% increase from the projections for the Class of 2023.²² Furthermore, Computer Science is listed among the top 10 degrees most in demand by employers, with at least 60% of responding employers indicating plans to hire CS majors.²²
• Master's Degrees: CS majors topped the list for projected average starting salary at $85,403.²²
• Doctoral Degrees: CS majors were expected to be the highest paid at this level, with a projected average salary of $139,928.²² The NACE Job Outlook 2024 survey²³ indicated that while overall hiring for the Class of 2024 was projected to dip slightly by 1.9% (this dip followed record-high hiring levels in the preceding two years), more than three-quarters of employers rated the job market for this graduating class from "good" to "excellent." While one sub-sector, "Computer & Electronics Manufacturing," projected a -9.8% change in hiring²³, this represents only a segment of the broader tech employment landscape.

The consistent and significantly above-average long-term growth projections from authoritative sources like the BLS and CompTIA for a wide array of CS-related occupations directly and powerfully contradict any narrative suggesting that the field has "backfired." Short-term fluctuations in recent graduate unemployment do not negate these strong underlying secular growth trends. The high starting salaries and strong hiring intent from employers for CS graduates, as reported by NACE, indicate that the market continues to place a high value on CS degrees, which undermines the notion that the degree's intrinsic value has collapsed. The slight projected dip in overall college hiring for the Class of 2024 should be understood as a market correction or normalization from "record levels" of hiring in the preceding two years, rather than a sign of a deep or prolonged downturn, especially given that employer sentiment remains largely positive.

D. Proposed Table 3: Projected Growth and Median Pay for Key Computer Science-Related Occupations (U.S. BLS, 2023-2033)

Occupation Title	Projected % Growth (2023-2033)	Projected Numeric Change in Employment (2023-2033)	Median Annual Pay (Year)
Software Developers	18% (overall); 19.5% (CSDRS1)	163,500 (in CSDRS1)	$128,320 (2023, in CSDRS1)
Data Scientists	36% (overall); 41.7% (PS2TS3)	N/A (overall); specific for PS2TS3 not listed	(High, varies by source)
Information Security Analysts	33% (overall); 41.4% (PS2TS3)	32,300 (in PS2TS3)	(Very High, varies by source)
Computer & Info. Research Scientists	26% (overall); 31.6% (PS2TS3)	9,400 (overall)	$140,910 (May 2024)16
Computer Network Architects	(Not specified in detail)	(Not specified in detail)	$130,390 (May 2024, similar)16
Database Administrators & Architects	(Not specified in detail)	(Not specified in detail)	$123,100 (May 2024, similar)16
All Computer Occupations	12%	N/A	$105,990 (May 2024)16
Total, All Occupations	4%	N/A	$49,500 (May 2024)16

¹ CSDRS: Computer Systems Design and Related Services.
² PS²TS³: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services.
Note: Median pay can vary based on specific BLS table and year (e.g., OES vs. OOH sector-specific). Growth rates are from BLS OOH or related BLS projections.¹⁵ Specific numeric changes for all roles in PS²TS³ are not always available in snippets but overall trends are clear.

This table provides concrete, forward-looking data from the BLS, directly countering claims of a bleak future for CS graduates by showcasing specific, high-growth, and well-compensated career paths.

VII. Conclusion: A Balanced Perspective on the Future for Computer Science Graduates

A. Recapitulation of Findings: Refuting the "Spectacular Backfire" Narrative

The analysis presented in this report indicates that the narrative of a "spectacular backfire" for Computer Science graduates is an oversimplification and, in some aspects, a distortion of a more complex labor market reality. While the current unemployment rate for recent CS graduates (6.056%) and CE graduates (7.538%) is indeed higher than the overall tech workforce rate (around 3.1%) and slightly above the average for all recent graduates (5.8%), these figures are not extreme outliers when compared to the full spectrum of academic majors.¹ Moreover, they must be interpreted within the context of a generally more challenging job market for all new entrants into the workforce.⁵ The specific claim of a "40% engineering budget cut" across companies has been shown to be a misrepresentation of targeted restructuring at a single firm.¹⁸ In stark contrast to a bleak outlook, long-term projections from the BLS and CompTIA demonstrate robust and sustained demand for a wide array of computer science skills and occupations, with growth rates significantly outpacing the average for all jobs.¹⁵ Data from NACE further confirms that employers continue to offer high starting salaries and express strong hiring intent for CS graduates, underscoring the perceived value of these degrees.²²

B. Acknowledging Current Market Realities and Nuances

It is important to acknowledge that the entry-level job market for recent CS graduates is currently more competitive than it may have been in the immediate post-pandemic boom. This heightened competition is influenced by several converging factors:

• A substantial increase in the supply of CS graduates, a result of the discipline's popularity and the success of initiatives encouraging STEM education.¹
• A broader economic adjustment that has impacted the labor market for all recent graduates, leading to higher overall unemployment and underemployment rates for this demographic.⁵
• A period of recalibration within the tech sector itself, which has included some high-profile layoffs as companies adjust staffing levels after rapid pandemic-era hiring and shift strategic priorities.²
• The evolving role of Artificial Intelligence, which may automate some very basic entry-level coding tasks and consequently raise the bar for the initial skill sets and adaptability required of new graduates.¹²

C. Emphasizing Strong Long-Term Fundamentals and Evolving Opportunities

Despite these short-term headwinds at the entry-level, the fundamental drivers of demand for computer science skills remain exceptionally strong. Ongoing technological innovation, the pervasive digital transformation across all industries, the exponential growth of data, the critical need for cybersecurity, and the transformative potential of Artificial Intelligence are secular trends that will continue to fuel demand for a highly skilled tech workforce. The future for CS graduates is not one of diminishing returns but of evolving opportunities. These opportunities will increasingly require continuous learning, specialization (particularly in high-growth areas like AI, data science, and cybersecurity), and the development of a broader set of complementary skills, including domain expertise and strong communication abilities.

D. Final Perspective: Reinterpreting "Learn to Code" – Beyond the Slogan

The "learn to code" mantra, while effective in popularizing computer science and attracting talent to the field, was perhaps an oversimplification of what constitutes a successful and resilient career in technology. The data suggests that while foundational coding skills are necessary, they may no longer be sufficient in isolation, especially given the increased graduate pool and the capabilities of AI. The true and enduring value of a Computer Science education lies not merely in learning specific programming languages, but in developing computational thinking, sophisticated problem-solving abilities, logical reasoning, and the capacity to design, build, and analyze complex systems. These foundational intellectual skills remain highly valuable and are adaptable to a wide range of challenges and technological advancements.

The challenge—and indeed the opportunity—for current and future CS professionals is to augment this robust foundation with specialized expertise in emerging areas like AI, to cultivate interdisciplinary connections that allow them to apply their skills in diverse contexts, and to hone the communication and collaborative skills necessary to thrive in team-based, innovation-driven environments. The message for aspiring tech professionals should evolve from a simple "learn to code" to a more comprehensive "learn to innovate, adapt, and solve complex challenges with technology." The future for those who embrace this broader vision remains bright.

Works Cited (Click to Expand/Collapse)

1. "Learn to Code" Backfires Spectacularly as Comp-Sci Majors Suddenly Have Sky-High Unemployment - Futurism, accessed June 1, 2025, https://futurism.com/computer-science-majors-high-unemployment-rate ↩
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